CURRENT RESEARCH PROJECTS

Below are listed examples of particular settings in which we are currently working. However, we are always interested in exploring research questions for other infectious diseases or settings.

Research: Research

HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA

Emily has been interested in HPAI since her secondment to the Animal and Plant Health Agency in 2017 during an outbreak. She has since worked on an HPAI modelling projects as part of the MODIL (Modelling Disease in Livestock) consortium and is currently working on a project with colleagues at the Universities of Liverpool and Oxford. She is particularly interested in the relative contributions of wild birds in transmission and has recently been awarded funding to investigate this further (See news section)

LASSA FEVER

Lassa fever is a zoonotic, acute viral disease spread by the common African rat and endemic in parts of West Africa. We have developed a transmission model to investigate how vaccination could be used to avert infections, cases, hospitalisations and deaths (See publication).

NIPAH VIRUS

Nipah virus (NiV) is an emerging zoonotic disease that is transmitted to people from animals, through contaminated food or directly from person-to-person. Pteropus bats are thought to be an important reservoir for NiV. Emily has previously done work on investigating the epidemiological patterns of NiV. We have a few projects under development in this area and this is the focus of Daisy Bengey's PhD.

Contact patterns and behaviour

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Emily provided modelling support to universities and policy-makers. Much of this was focused on impact of mitigation measures in a university setting. She led a project which collected data on the contacts and behaviours of university students.

IDENTIFYING OPTIMUM MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR PSOROPTIC MANGE (SHEEP SCAB)

Sheep scab is a parasitic disease which causes huge economic losses and is an animal welfare concern. During her PhD, Emily developed a metapopulation model for sheep scab which includes all sheep farms in Great Britain and realistic movement patterns based on sheep movement data. Transmission in the model occurs within farms, between contiguous farms via the environment and through long-distance movements of infected sheep and is fitted to epidemiological data as described in this paper.
The model has been used to understand more about the importance of different transmission pathways of sheep scab and how this disease can be better managed.

We are currently developing the model further to look at other important management questions.

HIERARCHICAL FORECASTING MODELS FOR BED OCCUPANCY AND ADMISSIONS IN HOSPITALS

We have produced a modelling framework that can be applied to individual NHS trusts and/or wider NHS systems to predict winter pressures on bed occupancy due to respiratory viruses

Vector-borne disease

Emily has previously worked on species distribution models of ticks and tick-borne disease and this was also the topic of Katie's PhD (a postdoctoral researcher in our group). We will be recruiting for a PhD (starting in April 2026) on Biosentinel surveillance for emerging zoonotic disease assessment and modelling which will be focusing evidence of potential mosquito-borne threats such as West Nile virus, using birds as sentinels.

DEVELOPMENT OF NEW METHODS FOR INCORPORATING HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IN EPIDEMIC MODELLING

Human behaviour has not always traditionally been incorporated in epidemiological models, however, it can often be an important determinant. Emily has previously worked with qualitative researchers and modelled human behaviour in relation to farmer treatment choices for disease prevention and in response to mitigation measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. We are interested in working more in this area and trying to incorporate this where possible across all areas of our research. Emily co-organised a workshop on this topic which resulted in a publication presenting the main challenges identified in this emerging field.