Modelling Infectious Disease Dynamics And Control (Nixon Research group)
CURRENT RESEARCH PROJECTS
Below are listed examples of particular settings in which we are currently working. However, we are always interested in exploring research questions for other infectious diseases or settings.
HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA
Emily has been interested in HPAI since her secondment to the Animal and Plant Health Agency in 2017 during an outbreak. She has since worked on an HPAI modelling projects as part of the MODIL (Modelling Disease in Livestock) consortium and is currently working on a project with colleagues at the Universities of Liverpool and Oxford. She is particularly interested in the relative contributions of wild birds in transmission.
DISEASE TRANSMISSION AND CONTROLÂ IN UNIVERSITIES AND HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Emily has been providing modelling support to universities and policy-makers on the impact of mitigation measures in a university setting. She also led a project which collected data on the contacts and behaviours of university students.
IDENTIFYING OPTIMUM MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FORÂ PSOROPTIC MANGE (SHEEP SCAB)
Sheep scab is a parasitic disease which causes huge economic losses and is an animal welfare concern. During her PhD, Emily developed a metapopulation model for sheep scab which includes all sheep farms in Great Britain and realistic movement patterns based on sheep movement data. Transmission in the model occurs within farms, between contiguous farms via the environment and through long-distance movements of infected sheep and is fitted to epidemiological data as described in this paper.
The model has been used to understand more about the importance of different transmission pathways of sheep scab and how this disease can be better managed.
We are currently developing the model further to look at other important management questions.
HIERARCHICALÂ FORECASTING MODELS FORÂ BED OCCUPANCY AND ADMISSIONS IN HOSPITALS
This is a new project starting in Jan 23, funded by the Pandemic Institute at the University of Liverpool.
LASSA FEVER
Lassa fever is a zoonotic, acute viral disease spread by the common African rat and endemic in parts of West Africa. We are developing a transmission model to investigate how vaccination could be used to avert infections, cases, hospitalisations and deaths.
NIPAH VIRUS
Nipah virus (NiV) is an emerging zoonotic disease that is transmitted to people from animals, through contaminated food or directly from person-to-person. Pteropus bats are thought to be an important reservoir for NiV. Emily has previously done work on investigating the epidemiological patterns of NiV. We have a few projects under development in this area.
TICKS AND TICK-BORNE DISEASE
Emily has previously worked on species distribution models of ticks and tick-borne disease and this was also the topic of Katie's PhD (a postdoctoral researcher in our group). We have a few projects under development in this area.
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW METHODS FOR INCORPORATING HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IN EPIDEMIC MODELLING
Human behaviour has not always traditionally been incorporated in epidemiological models, however, it can often be an important determinant. Emily has previously worked with qualitative researchers and modelled human behaviour in relation to farmer treatment choices for disease prevention and in response to mitigation measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. We are interested in working more in this area and trying to incorporate this where possible across all areas of our research.
